Thursday, April 07, 2011

Election - what's going on

The Canadian General Election, scheduled for May 2, 2011, is fast approaching so let's see what's going on, shall we? The current poll results show the Conservatives still leading with about a 10% lead over the Liberals (Angus Reid Poll 38% Conservative, 27% Liberal, 21% NDP). The trend over the past couple of weeks has been a softening of the Conservatives support while the Liberals are gaining ground.

Why, you ask? Well I don't know, I am not that political. However I don't mind throwing out opinions, it's so easy to do, so here are my thoughts on this pre and ongoing election stuff. My ratings are in negatives because unless you are a true, no questions asked follower of a particular party, it's often not that you find many reasons to vote for someone, instead you really find reasons not to vote for someone. You know many politicians stretch the truth, say things that will not happen and you know they are going to whack you with tax increases (remember the HST?) so the question is Who is going to screw you the least?
Here are the top five reasons to vote Conservative (at this point) and put them into a shiny, new minority government and then hope for Trudeaumania to return in the near future.

1) I didn't mind the Conservative minority government and was disappointed that the opposition forced an election. Negative marks to the Liberals -10% (the other guys don't really count in this election and will have to gain more support to be a true factor, otherwise in most cases you throw away your vote on the NDP and Green Party. PS I have voted for the Green Party candidate several times because of my kids political indoctrination in high school, they liked the NDP as well but I still have nightmares about Bob Rae).
2) I didn't like Harper's secretive ways before the election. I think he believes that if he doesn't say anything, no one will get mad, which is pretty realistic, until you get mad at him for not saying anything. Harper's continued attempt to limit discussions and access is really annoying. And to have the RCMP enforce his restriction of people of the non conservative variety into his events is way off base. Negative points to the Conservatives (and RCMP) -25%. (Although I do like that the RCMP came out publicly and said to their people to protect the PM, not the party, but note that this started years ago).
3) Once a party has been in for a number of terms it is always good on general principal to turf them and put someone else in charge for awhile. Shake things up a bit. Negative for the Conservatives -10 points.
4) The real alternative to the Conservatives is the Liberals and I don't really want to vote for Ignatieff (It is interesting to note that around the time that the election was being called an Ipsos poll showed that most people felt the best Prime Minister would have Harper first at 49%, followed by Layton at 34% and finally Ignatieff at 17%). Harper has to get me mad before I start leaning towards the Liberal leader from Harvard University. Negative for the Liberals -50%.
5) When will the leaders be in Toronto? Heck if I can find out when Harper is in town, unless it is after the fact. The Liberals publish an event guide on their website. Negative for Conservatives -5%.

By this reckoning, with Liberals at a negative overall score of -20%, I would not vote for the Liberals and would instead vote for the Conservatives to return to power. If the Liberals had a dynamic leader I am sure that they would have won the vote this year. I would have voted for the young Justin Trudeau if he were in charge and maybe he will be for the next election.

Both Harper and Igantieff will have a six minute face to face during April 12th's televised debate. Let's see a little action on platforms and finally some communication.

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